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The 2014–15 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially ran from November 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) that are operated in this region. Three of the five centres are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, while the other two are operated by the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta, Indonesia. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France also monitored the basin during the season. ==Seasonal forecasts== Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2014. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Niño conditions occurring during the season.〔 The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.〔 At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.〔 In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2014, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year.〔 Each forecast issued took into account the near El Niño conditions that had developed over the region and the El Niño episode that was expected to develop during the season.〔 For the basin as a whole they predicted that there was a 34% chance, that the season would be near its average of around 11 tropical cyclones.〔 For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to the average of 7, with a 43% chance of an above average cyclone season.〔 TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelhood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia. For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below average, with a 38% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity.〔 The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 46% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia.〔 The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near normal tropical cyclone season, though it was noted that there was a possibility of a delayed start to the season.〔 The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.〔 They predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 55% chance of it being above average.〔 The Western region was predicted to have 39% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 55% chance of being above average.〔 An updated Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook was issued during February 2015, which suggested that near normal activity was still possible. The outlook took into account Tropical Cyclones Niko and Ola as well as the weak El Nino conditions, that were predicted to persist over the region.〔 As a result, the update predicted that an additional six to eight named tropical cyclones would develop over the basin, which would bring the overall total to between eight and ten tropical cyclones.〔 The update also predicted that at least four tropical cyclones would intensify into category three severe tropical cyclones, of which three could intensify and become either a category four or five severe tropical cyclone.〔 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「2014–15 Australian region cyclone season」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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